From Kumawu to Assin North
Beyond the obvious fact that I belong to the NPP, I had a few personal reasons to follow keenly the Kumawu bye-election campaign and matters arising.
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Unfortunately, work and other commitments prevented me from setting foot in the constituency during the period.
For starters, my father was the Manwerehene of the Kumawu Traditional Area before his passing in 2015, so I have a deep sense of belonging to Kumawu, even though I have not visited in quite a while.
The Kumawuhene, Barima Sarfo Tweneboa Kodua (AE67), was one year my senior at the Opoku Ware School.
We were in the same house (St John) and were quite good friends back then.
Of course, his royal status means that certain protocols serve as some sort of barrier at present, but I keep making mental notes to visit him one weekend.
Finally, the runner-up in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) primary for the bye-election, Mrs Ama Serwah Nerquaye-Tetteh, is a valued friend and former work colleague.
Of course, I hoped she would win but the good delegates had other ideas and were ultimately vindicated.
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Pre-election
Ordinarily, the Kumawu bye-election should have been an open-and-shut affair.
The NPP has held the seat since the 1996 election.
However, in 2020, the NPP’s candidate, the emergence of an independent candidate, Kwaku Duah, who was a chip off the NPP block, managed to garner 39.96 per cent in the 2020 Elections.
With his re-entry into the race this year, some genuinely believed he could cause the NPP to lose the seat. In particular, they expected party supporters to either stay away in droves or vote for the independent candidate in protest against youth unemployment, the lack of development projects in the constituency among others.
This of course would have been a major coup for the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
They would have run away with such an upset and excitedly claimed it was a barometer of the national mood following our current economic challenges.
They would have brandished it as a harbinger of things to come in the 2024 Election.
The confidence with which some predicted an NPP loss was quite amusing, really.
Of course, the NPP refused to be complacent and brought out all its arsenal to campaign down to the wire, as it should have.
Outcome
It all turned out to be a damp squib, really for the doomsayers.
The NPP’s Ernest Yaw Anim prevailed by winning over 70 per cent of the valid votes cast.
In 2020, the late Philip Basoah garnered 51.11 per cent of the valid votes to win the seat.
The independent candidate Kwaku Duah of yesteryear saw his votes fall spectacularly from 11,698 in 2020 to 2,478 votes in the bye-election.
Contrary to the social media predictions of low turnout, the figure stood at an impressive 62 per cent.
The NPP voter numbers, compared to 2020, did not depreciate as had been wildly speculated, even though it increased only marginally by around 300 votes.
Bottom line, NPP retained the seat.
I believe in the mantra that ‘all politics is local’.
I find it extraordinary that the national economic situation can simply be extrapolated to a constituency in a bye-election with confident predictions, without taking into account local dynamics, trends and perspectives.
What I found remarkable, post-election, was the grumbling on some social media platforms that seemed to begrudge and almost denigrate the people of the Kumawu Constituency for voting as they did, with some berating them for ‘auto-pilot’ votes, rather than considering the national economic outlook.
Such posturing, beyond being insulting, is ignorant of the fundamental fact that in all democratic dispensations, political parties have their heartlands or strongholds from which it is nigh-impossible to dislodge them, no matter what.
For instance, starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to US states whose voters vote predominantly for one party — the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in blue states — in presidential and other statewide election.
In the UK, it would take a seismic shift for say, Hackney Constituency to vote Conservative or Kensington to vote Labour, whatever the performance of either party in government.
There is always a rump of dependable seats for either party.
The notion of Kumawu or indeed Bantama or Manhyia South voting NDC, whatever an NPP government’s performance, is as fanciful as expecting the NPP to win the Ketu South or Ketu North seat, whatever an NDC government’s performance in office.
Of course, there may be flukes here and there such as Hohoe swinging to the NPP for the first time in 2020, but ordinarily, some things are just what they are.
Assin North
On the other hand, Assin North, which is likely to be declared vacant by the Speaker anytime soon following the Supreme Court’s recent order, presents a different scenario. Perhaps, a voting trend analysis since 2012 would help.
In the 2020 presidential election, President Akufo-Addo beat Mr John Mahama by about 1000 votes in the constituency, whilst Mr Quayson, the NDC candidate, beat the incumbent NPP candidate, Ms Abena Durowaa Mensah, by 3,305 votes.
Earlier, in the 2016, again President Akufo-Addo beat Mr Mahama by just under 2,000 votes, whilst the NPP’s Abena Mensah snatched the parliamentary seat from the NDC incumbent, Samuel Ambre, beating him by 4,802 votes.
In 2012, the then President Mahama beat the NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo by about 3,000 votes in the presidential election, whilst Samuel Ambre of the NDC beat the NPP’s Ebenezer Appiah-Kubi by 2,057 votes to take the seat.
Prior to that, since 2000, the NPP had held the seat.
Clearly, from the data, Assin North could be anybody’s game and is what can be called a swing constituency.
From all indications, the NDC is likely to field Mr Quayson as its candidate, subject of course to what the delegates say.
The fact that he won in the last election clearly gives him some impetus as a popular and strong candidate and his party is likely to milk the sympathy vote in addition.
Of course, the party cannot afford to completely ignore his ongoing criminal case where he is facing the serious charges of perjury and others.
The decision to field him and any possible risks that may emanate from it, lie entirely with them and Mr Quayson.
In a ‘skirt-and-blouse’ situation, President Akufo-Addo beat Mr Mahama in the presidential elections of 2020, with the NDC winning the parliamentary seat.
This indicates that there must have been some disaffection in the parliamentary primary in the constituency.
If that is resolved and the right person is selected, it would be a huge boost for the party.
Mr Quayson’s 3,305 vote majority of 2020 is not unassailable, especially when one notes that in that election, he was able to wipe out Ms Mensah’s 2016 gap of 4,802 against the NDC incumbent.
Stakes
The stakes are very high as the two parties lock horns in a fierce battle for the soul of the Assin North Constituency.
Whichever party wins the bye-election will receive a huge psychological boost as we prepare for the 2024 general election.
I can see the two parties’ entire machinery relocating to the constituency to try to mop up every single vote in what I call ‘Passion for Assin’.
You blink, you sink.
I have no family or emotional links to Assin North.
But I intend to lace up my boots and storm the constituency for the elephant fraternity.
The writer is Head, Communications & Public Affairs Unit, Ministry of Energy, Accra.
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