COVID-19: Three years on
On 30th January 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 public health emergency of international/global concern, and in that same year, on 11th March, declared it a pandemic.
Three years on, WHO says COVID-19 remains a global health emergency but the pandemic is at a “transition point”.
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This new development was contained in statements made by WHO after its International Health Regulations Emergency Committee meeting held on Friday, January 27. WHO Director-General, Tedros Adhanom, according to reports, is of the view that the public health emergency of international concern declaration should continue.
And I agree too. Even though we have seen some reduction in virus infections in recent months, according to WHO, “achieving higher levels of population immunity globally, either through infection and/or vaccination, may limit the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on morbidity and mortality, but there is still doubt that the virus will remain a permanently established pathogen in humans and animals for the foreseeable future”. In effect, eliminating the virus from human and animal reservoirs is highly unlikely but mitigation of its “devastating impact on morbidity and mortality is achievable and should continue to be “a prioritised goal”.
Any news- good or bad- about COVID-19 arouses my interest for various reasons. Significantly though, because l may not live to see a pandemic of this nature again, I have taken a keen interest in how it has evolved over time, learn and share the lessons.
Let me share a few thoughts on this with you today too. When WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, I had a thing or two to say about this development in the March 28, 2020 edition of this column. In the referenced edition, under the heading “Accounting for COVID-19”, I tried to explain the possible economic and financial costs that the pandemic could bring. I had no experience, whatsoever, in pandemic situations, but l was very sure then, as l am now, that any situation that has the potential of crippling global supply chains or bringing to a halt-abruptly- global trading activities would bring massive social and economic costs. With the pandemic this time though, it was a triple whammy- health, social and economic problems.
“The dust is yet to settle on the full impact of the economic shocks that have suddenly rocked the global economy as a result of the current strain of the corona virus-COVID-19.
However, there are indications, from initial assessments, that this health shock would leave in its wake far-reaching financial and economic losses much greater than what had been witnessed in recent history. In fact, some analysts fear that there could well be further ‘after-shocks’, which could impact the global economy over a much longer period than presently anticipated”, is what l wrote in the March 28, 2020 edition of this column.
What impressed me the most, at the start, was the scale of policy initiatives and interventions undertaken by governments, regulators and other bodies with the responsibility of safeguarding the world’s financial market infrastructures, to not only address the health risks, but also the financial and economic losses.
In fact, I got scared along the line when l saw and read from various news channels how even advanced economies were struggling to cope with the virus. I wondered, then, how countries with poor health facilities were going to cope with the threat of the virus.
The lockdown showed, to a large extent, how global interconnectedness could bring both threats and opportunities. In fact, as l have explained in previous editions of this column, we live in an interdependent world, which has become even much closer in the past three decades, than ever before, all because of globalisation.
Today, that strong connection has taught us a big lesson on why we cannot claim to be unconcerned about developments in other parts of the world. The coronavirus, according to reports, started from China, but it escalated to other countries in no time.
My lessons from the pandemic is a lesson in globalisation. We all saw how economic squeeze from one end of the globe could literally, directly affect other parts of the world too. Today, the effects of globalisation are no longer felt by humans alone. Birds and sea life, for example, equally suffer when the attendant problems of globalisation create a spill-over effect. Past cases associated with oil exploration and accidents remind us all of how connected the world is; you may be exploring for oil in Alaska but an accident there can be felt in almost every sea in the world. And the COVID-19 is a reminder that a safer world is for the benefit of all, and not just a few.
Of course there are other worries too. Even though globalisation has come to stay and has far-reaching benefits, the pandemic effect has created some protectionism that needs to be checked.
According to Gita Gopinath, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, the pandemic is a trying time for globalisation. “But it is very important that this does not become a feature, where we reverse all the gains that we’ve gotten from globalisation,” Gopinath said at the launch of the 2020 World Economic Outlook.
Further, she stressed the need for the restrictions and some of the containment strategies not to become a normal feature going forward as that had the tendency of reducing world output “and that is the last thing we want at this time.”
But life imitates, doesn’t it? In the August 8, 2020 edition of this column, I explained why “there is nothing new under the sun” to shore up hope that COVID-19 may be novel but there were times also in history when people went through something similar and prevailed. “Indeed, the words of Solomon that ‘there is nothing new under the sun’ came to mind once again when reading through the global economic assessments reports written by public authorities and market participants over the pasew days. What seemed to have happened, almost a 100 years ago, seems to be repeating today.
The lines of the various economic reports that l had the opportunity to read (mostly about the performance of the first six months of the year) sounded so familiar that l wondered whether we were still in the era of the Great Depression of the 1920s or the Great Financial Crisis of the 2000s.
You notice that the COVID- 19 has had devastating effects on public authorities (especially those in charge of the public purse), businesses and households, much the same way (some say much more intense) that the world moved in the periods of crisis of the past. Whereas the conditions that precipitated the financial, economic and social problems of the past may be different, the effects have been the same, somewhat”, is what l wrote in the August 8, 2020 edition. There is, indeed, nothing new under the sun!
COVID-19 has, indeed, taught us a big lesson.
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