China to replace US as superpower?
MANY Germans believe that China will replace the United States (US) as sole superpower in the near future.
Some 42 per cent of Germans indicated in a survey conducted in the middle of last July that China, known as People’s Republic of China, would supersede the US as the world’s greatest power.
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In the survey, done by a United Kingdom polling firm, YouGov. Polling Institute, as low as 14 per cent of Germans stated that the US would remain as a superpower in the next few decades.
However, 23 per cent of those surveyed did not express their opinion on the question: “Which country, the US or China, will be more powerful in the course of the next 50 years, in your opinion?”.
On the political leanings of those polled, the survey showed that voters for the Left Party were inclined to see China as the next superpower.
For the “business friendly” Free Democrats and the Green Party (environment friendly), 52 per cent of voters for the two parties also indicated that the US would be replaced by China.
Respondents who voted for the far-right Alternative Germany Party were most “likely to say that the US will remain a dominant superpower”.
Nine years ago, a worldwide survey conducted by the Pew Research Centre (in July 2011) showed that 15 out of 22 nations surveyed held the view that China had already replaced, or would replace the US, as the world’s only superpower.
In the 2011 survey, respondents’ opinion dwelled mostly on the fact that China had become the world’s biggest economic power in terms of trade and that the trend would continue into the next few decades.
Some 40 per cent of respondents in Spain believed that China was the leading economy, according to the survey.
Majority of respondents in the following European countries held the same view: Germany, 48 per cent; UK, 47 per cent and France, 47 per cent.
On the question “Has China replaced the US as superpower?”, respondents replied, ‘yes’ as follows: US, 12%; France, 23%; Spain, 14%; UK, 11%; Germany, 11%; Poland, 21%; and Russia, 15%.
In Lithuania, 11% of respondents replied ‘yes’ to the same question: Ukraine, 14%; Israel, 14%; China, 6%; Japan, 13%; India, 13%; Mexico, 19%; Brazil, 10% and Kenya, 10%.
To the question “Will China eventually replace the U.S. as superpower?”, percentages of respondents who answered in the affirmative were:
US, 34%; France, 49%; Spain, 53%; UK, 54%; Germany, 50%; Poland, 26%; Russia, 30%; Lithuania, 29%; Ukraine 23%; Israel, 32% and China, 57%.
The rest are Japan, 25%; India, 19%; Mexico, 34%; Brazil, 27%; and Kenya, 37%.
Responses in the affirmative to the statement: “China will never replace the US as super power” were as follows: US, 45%; France, 28%; Spain, 30%; UK, 26%; Germany, 34%; Poland, 31% and Russia, 30%.
The rest are Lithuania, 40%; Israel, 44%; China, 17%; Japan, 46%; India, 17%; Mexico, 31%; Brazil, 47% and Kenya, 47%.
Before the 1980s, the People’s Republic of China was not a dominant economic power as it is today.
That was because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held on to the country’s politics and economy in a way that made it impossible for the Chinese people to create wealth as they would have wanted.
It was not until the 1980s that Deng Xiaoping, a new leader of the CCP, introduced the capitalist mode of economic development into China.
By applying what he called “the responsibility principle”, Deng Xiaoping asked the Chinese people to feel free to create as much wealth as possible for themselves. Every capable Chinese citizen must produce more for himself or herself to show the way to others.
Relaxation of state control over production, distribution and exchange of goods and services in China has been the key factor in China’s rise as a world economic power.
For about a decade, China recorded double-digit economic growth rates and has, eventually, become the second biggest economy, after the U.S.
China is, presently, the world’s largest economy in terms of the volumes of trade and is likely to become the wealthiest nation in the world in the near future.
On the question of whether China will replace the US as superpower in the next few decade, the answer depends on many factors.
The power of a nation is determined by many notable factors or determinants of national power.
The determinants include the following: sufficient natural and human resources; high and sustainable economic growth rates; large geographical area; good leadership; high and reliable intelligence gathering system; sustainable and reliable military capability; peace and stability within the nation and an unquestionable, sustainable and reliable political system.
China has a number of these factors such as a huge population (1.4 billion), the largest in the world; large geographical area; high and consistent economic growth rates; abundant supply of natural and human resources; good leadership and a capable intelligence gathering apparatus.
The banes of China’s quest for the superpower status include the following: China is not a true democratic country where all the paraphernalia of democratic governance are at work.
China is a communist country that has successfully adopted the capitalist mode of economic development.
Lack of fundamental human rights for the Chinese people, such as freedom of speech and the mass media; freedom of association and movement, free of religion, academic freedom, among many others, will serve as a setback to China becoming a superpower in the near future.
If China succeeds in becoming a superpower, that country must undertake some fundamental political, cultural and social reforms to sustain that status.
The Soviet Union or Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) collapsed as a union and as a superpower because that country lacked certain factors that could have enabled it to sustain its superpower status for a long time.
The USSR lacked the economic leverage and that weakened its hold on the rest of the unwilling republics.
Conversely, the US has all it takes to build and sustain itself as a leading and exemplary democratic nation and as a superpower.
Its historic and sustainable democratic culture and huge economic structure built over several decades of experience and knowhow have enabled that country to support its political culture and prop up its superpower status for a long time.
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