Trump stuns world. Stocks fall, currencies tumble as his victory defies polls
The world was in denial of a Donald Trump presidency in the United States of America (USA). Many thought his race for the White House was a joke, but by 2 a.m. yesterday, that dream had become a reality.
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In the same way that Republican leaders took him for granted during the primary but he outwitted the competition to emerge the candidate, so also did he work hard to make his dream of becoming the President of the most powerful nation of the world come true.
Even hours before Trump delivered his victory speech, the stocks had plummeted, with the dollar and the peso tumbling to record lows.
Elections in America always travel long hours into the Election Night when voters in the country and the rest of the world stay awake to await the outcome of the polls.
Mrs Hillary Clinton, the candidate of the Democratic Party, true to prediction, took an early lead, confirming earlier polls, especially when she took the State of California.
But the race for the White House had just begun.
Electoral college
In a country where the electoral college votes of 270 takes a candidate to the White House, the battle was far from over.
The results from Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania came in, putting Trump in an unassailable lead and the entire world was stunned, confused that the unexpected had happened.
As of 4 a.m. yesterday, Trump had garnered 244 of the electoral votes, with Clinton securing 215, with 42 of the states declared.
The Trump camp prevailed on their candidate to give his victory speech, but other views prevailed that Clinton had to concede first.
When Clinton’s campaign manager asked the supporters to go home and rest because the polls were too close to call, many thought the Bush-Al Gore episode of 2000 was unfolding.
To the surprise of many, shortly after it was felt that Clinton was not going to concede, she called Trump to concede defeat.
Trump then proceeded to his campaign headquarters in New York to deliver what was considered to be a conciliatory speech, stating that he would be President for all Americans.
Mr Trump, the first American to be elected as President without experience in government, surprised the world in an election that had been described by many as “the most surprising in the political history of America”.
This was one election that everybody got wrong; the pundits got it wrong; pollsters miussted the target, the media got it wrong and the outsiders Trump won the day to the astonishment of not only American voters but keen observers.
Against all odds, Mr Trump polled 278 of the 538 electoral college votes, while Mrs Clinton had 218.
The President-elect only needed to poll 270.
All along, Mrs Clinton was projected to be leading in the polls, with Mr Trump lagging behind.
He was vastly outspent by the Clinton campaign, just as he was during the Republican primary.
He turned consensus wisdom about how to win the presidency on its head.
All of these decisions - and many more - were roundly ridiculed in "knowledgeable" circles.
However, when it mattered most, the polls were wrong, projection models were wrong and veterans of previous presidential campaigns even got it wrong.
How Trump did it
The polls clearly did a woeful job predicting the shape and preferences of the electorate, particularly in Midwestern states.
In the final days of the campaign, however, the reality was that the polls were close enough that Mr Trump had a pathway to victory.
That pathway didn't look nearly as obvious about two weeks ago, before FBI director James Comey released his letter announcing that they were reopening their investigation into Mrs Clinton's private email server.
True, the polls were tightening a bit, but Mr Trump's sharpest rise in the standings came in the weeks between that first letter and Mr Comey's second, in which he said he had put the investigation back on the shelf.
The belief is that Mr Comey's actions never would have been a factor if Mrs Clinton had decided to rely on State Department email servers for her work correspondence.
Further, overwhelming support from White, working-class voters swept Trump to victory.
Most importantly, the Democrats’ "Blue Wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin crumbled, with Trump winning two of the three outright and leading in Michigan in the early hours of yesterday.
In some places, it was the "hidden" Trump supporters the campaign had touted but polls never found.
Elsewhere, it was Democratic turnout falling off from 2012 levels.
The difference was particularly evident in states where Clinton had struggled in the Democratic primary against Bernie Sanders, whose protectionist message on trade largely matched Trump's.
While places such as Virginia and Colorado held fast, Wisconsin fell — and with it Mrs Clinton's presidential hopes.
It appears that Mr Trump was able to successfully consolidate his base, bringing wayward conservatives back into the fold and shredding Mrs Clinton's hopes of offering a compelling closing message to US voters.
Mr Trump ran the most unconventional of political campaigns, but it turned out he knew better than all the experts.
He held massive rallies instead of focusing on door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.
Finally, there was the perception that there was no way he could compete for, let alone win, a general election.
In the end, however, they worked.
