Countries with strong growth forecast in Africa: Ghana missing from top 11 list
Ghana is missing from the list of top 11 countries in Africa projected to experience strong economic performance forecast of 8.5 per cent on average this year.
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This is because the country, which is under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme, is projected to end the year with growth less than 4% albeit higher than what has been projected by the Bretton Wood institutions.
According to the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group, the top 11 countries to record strong growth this year are Niger (11.2%), Senegal (8.2%), Libya (7.9%), Rwanda (7.2%), Cote d’Ivoire (6.8%), Ethiopia (6.7%), Benin (6.4%), Djibouti (6.2%), Tanzania (6.1%), Togo (6%), and Uganda at 6%.
However, overall, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the continent is expected to average 3.8% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This is higher than projected global averages of 2.9% and 3.2%, as per the group’s latest Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) of the continent released last Friday, the report said.
2nd fastest growing economy
The continent is set to remain the second fastest-growing region after Asia. Meanwhile, Africa will account for 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024.
Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook, a biannual publication released in the first and third quarters of each year, complements the existing African Economic Outlook (AEO), which focuses on key emerging policy issues relevant to the continent’s development.
The MEO report provides an up-to-date evidence-based assessment of the continent’s recent macroeconomic performance and short to medium-term outlook amid dynamic global economic developments.
Cautious optimism
The latest report called for cautious optimism given the challenges posed by global and regional risks.
These risks include rising geopolitical tensions, increased regional conflicts, and political instability—all of which could disrupt trade and investment flows, and perpetuate inflationary pressures.
Output expansions
Bank Group President, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, said in a statement that “Despite the challenging global and regional economic environment, 15 African countries have posted output expansions of more than 5%”.
Consequently, he called for larger pools of financing and several policy interventions to further boost Africa’s growth.
Dr Adesina emphasised that fiscal deficits have improved, as faster-than-expected recovery from the pandemic helped shore up revenue.
“This has led to a stabilisation of the average fiscal deficit at 4.9% in 2023, like 2022, but significantly less than the 6.9% average fiscal deficit of 2020.
The stabilisation is also due to the fiscal consolidation measures, especially in countries with elevated risks of debt distress,” he explained further.
The AfDB Group President cautioned that with the global economy mired in uncertainty, the fiscal positions of the African continent will continue to be vulnerable to global shocks.
The report shows that the medium-term growth outlook for the continent’s five regions is slowly improving, a pointer to the continued resilience of Africa’s economies.
Highlights of key findings
On the key findings of the report, the African Development Bank’s Chief Economist and Vice-President, Prof. Kevin Urama, said: “Growth in Africa’s top-performing economies has benefitted from a range of factors, including declining commodity dependence through economic diversification, increasing strategic investment in key growth sectors, and rising both public and private consumption, as well as positive developments in key export markets.”
He added: “Africa’s economic growth is projected to regain moderate strength as long as the global economy remains resilient, disinflation continues, investment in infrastructure projects remains buoyant, and progress is sustained on debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation.”
Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals, African Union Commission, Albert Muchanga, also said “The future of Africa rests on economic integration. Our small economies are not competitive in the global market. A healthy internal African trade market can ensure value-added and intra-African production of manufactured goods.”
He gave an assurance that the MEO forecast and recommendations would be made available to African heads of state and that the report will be useful when the African Union makes its proposals to the G20- an informal gathering of many of the world’s largest economies to which the African Union was admitted last year.
The improved growth figure for 2024 reflects concerted efforts by the continent’s policymakers to drive economic diversification strategies focused on increased investment in key growth sectors, as well as the
implementation of domestic policies aimed at consolidating fiscal positions and reversing the increase in the cost of living and boosting private consumption.
Overview of economic outlook across regions
The confluence of shocks notwithstanding, the resilience of the continent’s economies remains strong, with positive growth projected for the continent’s five regions.
• East Africa: East Africa will continue to lead Africa’s growth momentum, with growth projected to rise to 5.1% in 2024 and 5.7% in 2025, supported by strong strategic investments to improve internal connectivity and deepen intra-regional trade.
• North Africa: Successive adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic challenges will hold the region’s growth steady at 3.9% in 2024 with a slight improvement to 4.1% in 2025.
• Central Africa: Growth is forecast to moderate to 3.5% in 2024 but projected recovery in private consumption and increases in mining investment and exports could help push growth to 4.1% in 2025.
• Southern Africa: Growth will remain sluggish at 2.2 and 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This reflects continued economic weakness in South Africa, the region’s largest economy.
• West Africa: Growth is projected to pick up to 4% and 4.4% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Strong growth in most countries in the region is projected to offset slowdowns in Nigeria and Ghana. The announced withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) casts a shadow over the sustainability of gains amid growing uncertainty.
Driving faster and more sustainable economic growth
The 2024 MEO says in the short term, tackling persistent inflation will need a mix of restraining monetary policy coupled with fiscal consolidation and stable exchange rates.
The report identifies structural reforms and strategic industrial policies as key to accelerating economic diversification and strengthening the export sector.
It recommends that countries invest more in human capital and pursue a resource-based industrialisation and diversification strategy that allows the continent to exploit its comparative advantage and build resilience to shocks.
