Talensi Constituency: Too close to call, yet too open to ignore
Former chairman of the Ghana Olympic Committee (GOC) and Member of Parliament (MP) for Talensi in the Upper East Region, Mr Benson Tongo Baba, will come face to face with destiny on December 7, when the thumbprints of voters in the farmer-base constituency will determine whether he becomes the MP with the shortest term in office or the eldest person to retain the seat for the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
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A win for B. T., as he is affectionately called, will make him the eldest person, at 68 years, to retain the seat for the NDC after a by-election in July 2015 actualised his MP dream.
A loss will, however, mean that the former Deputy Director of the Ghana Prisons Services will be the MP with the shortest term in office that Talensi has ever had -- with 18 months as a legislator.
His two predecessors, the former New Patriotic Party (NPP) MP and current Paramount Chief of Tongo, Naab Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore, and the current Ambassador to Cuba, Hon John Akologu Tia, have been on the seat for three and half years and 20 years respectively.
B.T.'s dream of entering Parliament came to fruition in July 2015, when Naab Mosore stepped down a month earlier, following his enskinment.
But 18 months after his triumph in the by-election, the MP, a retired sports administrator and civil servant, is now back to the campaign ground, crisscrossing the constituency in search of voter support, to be able to remain in Parliament.
Just like the by-election, he faces the uphill task of beating his two contenders, the NPP's Thomas Pearson Wuni, a 51-year-old accountant, and the PNC's Michael Wumbego, a 43-year-old lecturer.
'Skirt and blouse'
The fate of the three MP contenders is to be decided by some 43,821 registered voters, who will join their counterparts in other constituencies nationwide to elect a president and MPs for the next four years.
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Although an NDC constituency, Mr Baba could become a victim of voter apathy from the party's supporters as bickering among party hierarchy and dwindling trust in the leadership by the rank and file in the constituency threaten to bring back the infamous 'skirt and blouse' form of voting.
In 2012, the canker of voting for an NDC Presidential Candidate but against the party's parliamentary candidate cost the party the Talensi seat.
In that election, more party sympathisers voted against the then sitting MP, Hon Tia, but voted for President John Mahama and that made it possible for the current chief of Tongo, who was then making his third attempt at the seat, to snatch it.
The same scenario could play out come December 7.
One NDC supporter, who opted not to be named explained that "when you hear people chant 'change' (which happens to be the campaign slogan of the NPP) they do not mean replace the NDC's John Mahama with Nana Akuffo-Addo. They mean replace the MP."
For staunch supporters of the MP, B. T. means Better Talensi and he should, therefore, be maintained. For his arch rivals, it means Bitter Talensi and must be ousted.
Permutations
Unlike 2012, a 'skirt and blouse' form of voting in Talensi come December 7 will very likely not favour the NPP.
It could benefit the PNC's Dr Wumbergo for three reasons: disgruntled NDC supporters will prefer someone else either than an NPP MP.
Also, Dr Wumbergo's popularity (this is his fourth straight attempt) and grasp over issues in the area makes him a more likable candidate to the few voters who may not be voting strictly on party lines.
The third reason is his outstanding appeal to voters in the eastern part of the constituency. The area is home to some 40 per cent of the total votes up for grasps on December 7.
In the by-election, Dr Wumbergo beat his two contenders in that part of the constituency but failed to secure wins in the west and central, where B. T. won.
The NPP candidate, on the other hand, is relatively new, having made his debut into the contest through the by-election. Worse, his strongholds (east and central) are NDC areas and nothing shows that voters there will want an NPP person to replace their MP, however disgruntled they are with the parliamentarian.
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This makes the contest a straight one between B. T. and Dr Wubergo.
While the appeals of the B. T. and Dr Wumbergo in their respective strongholds -- central and east -- are still intact, the same cannot be said of B. T. in the west, where voter apathy could be pronounced in key communities.
This is where Dr Wumbergo's broad base appeal could do the trick for him.
Also, nothing concrete shows that B. T. will be able to increase his margin of win in the central, where the NPP candidate is capable of springing a surprise.
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These notwithstanding, mention must be made that as outdoor campaigns inch to a close on December 5, indoor campaigns, comprising, mostly of goodies loaded in vehicles and distributed to voters in the night, will takeover and that could tilt the support in favour of any of the three candidates.
Given that the parliamentary elections, unlike the presidential, are determined by a simple majority, B. T. is capable of using a few votes to edge past his closest contender and by that retain the seat and push further the internal power struggle in the NDC for his position to 2020.
Whatever the case, only night of December 7 will determine which candidate wins the support of the people to represent the constituency in Parliament for the next four years.
Year NDC NPP PNC
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2008 9,548 (44.2%) 7,496 (34.7%. 4,394 (20.4%)
2012 9,119 (32.22%) 11,380 (41.46%) 6,420 (23.39%)
2015* 10,366 (42.31%) 6,845 (27.94%). 6,836 (27.90%)
2016