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NDC to win 2024 elections if... - EIU

BY: Enoch Darfah Frimpong

The Economist Intelligence Unit (ElU) has predicted that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the 2024 general elections, but the party needs to revitalise its leadership to increase its prospects.

In a report, the EIU said the NDC has a higher prospect of winning the 2024 elections.

“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024.

“Under constitutionally mandated term limits, the incumbent President Akufo-Addo, cannot run for a third term.

“The former president, John Mahama, is reportedly considering running again, but we expect the opposition NDC to try to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate.

“Our [EIU] baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation and easing of corruption—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change.

“The NDC therefore stands a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections.”

Mr Mahama led the NDC and won the 2012 elections but lost two subsequent elections in 2016 and 2020 to the New Patriotic Party's Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.

According to EIU's five-year forecast for Ghana released on Wednesday, April 13, 2022, the opposition party has a higher probability to be victorious in the next general elections.

The Economist Intelligence Unit is the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, providing forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis, such as monthly country reports, five-year country economic forecasts, country risk service reports, and industry reports.

NPP's reaction

The governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) has welcomed what it says was a constructive analysis of the governance of Ghana by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

In a statement reacting to the latest prediction by the EIU, that the opposition NDC has the prospects of winning the 2024 general elections, the NPP’s Director of Communications, Yaw Buaben Asamoa said the "objective analysis by the EIU extends the democratic tenet of free speech and provides perspectives capable of informing policy reform."

He stated that the EIU has a record of reviewing Ghana’s governance systems, especially potential political outcomes and to buttress its prediction of the NDC winning the elections by a slim margin in 2024, the EIU touts its record of successful predictions over the years.

However, he said the EIU does not tell how the NDC will come by its slim majority in Parliament and that given that Mahama is already the putative candidate, the EIU can comfortably say “we told you so” when the NPP breaks the eight with quality leadership and a strong policy performance.

Read also: 'Given that Mahama is already NDC's putative candidate', NPP will break 8

Below is a copy of the EIU report

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