Brong Ahafo in perspective
A total of about 1.4 million registered voters in the Brong Ahafo Region are expected to line up at all the 2,958 polling centres in the 29 constituencies across the Brong Ahafo Region on December 7, 2016 to cast their votes in order to elect their representatives in Parliament and a President.
Advertisement
One hundred and twenty-one candidates made up of 109 men and 12 women are vying for the 29 seats at stake.
All eyes will be on the region as a result of election dynamics that had characterised the voting pattern since Ghana returned to constitutional rule in 1992.
Until the results starts coming in after the close of polls tomorrow, the various political parties taking part in the election will continue to sit on the edges of their seats and guess where the votes of the people in the region will swing to.
This is because voters in the region have not been consistent in their pattern of voting in the past six elections.
Parliamentary elections
Since 1996, no party has won any of the parliamentary seats in the region besides the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
In the 1996 general election, the NDC won 17 out of the 21 seats while the NPP won the remaining four seats.
The results, however, changed in favour of the NPP in the 2000 election when it won 14 seats, while the NDC won seven.
In the 2004 election, the parliamentary seats in the region were increased to 24. The NPP won 14 seats while the NDC increased its seats to 10.
In the 2008 election, the NPP came back strongly and won 16 out of the 24 seats, while the NDC’s 10 seats were reduced to eight seats but came strongly in the 2012 election to win 16 out of the 29 seats while the NPP won 13.
Presidential election
The results of the presidential election in the region over the years have been a ding-dong affair between the NDC and the NPP.
In the 1996 election, the NDC’s candidate Jerry John Rawlings had 395,381 votes, representing 61.73 per cent, while NPP’s John Agyekum Kufuor secured 230,457 votes, representing 35.98 per cent of votes cast in the region.
The third candidate, Dr Edward Nasigre Mahama of the PNC got 14,635 votes (2.29 per cent).
In the 2000 election, NPP’s Kufuor had 306,506 (50.58 per cent); John Evans Atta Mills, NDC- 270.464 (44.63 per cent); Dr Edward Mahama, PNC- 10,337 (1.71 per cent);
Mr Goosie Tandoh- 6,634 (1.09 per cent); Mr Dan Lartey – GCPP, 6,331 (1.04) per cent); Mr George Hagan – CPP, 4,087 (0.67 per cent) and Dr Wereko Brobbey, 1,652 (0.2 per cent).
The results of the presidential election in 2008 in the region were as follows: J.A. Kufuor (NPP) – 392,588 (50.56 per cent); J.E.A Mills (NDC), 370,404 (47.79 per cent); Dr Edward Mahama (PNC) 4,038 (0.52 per cent) and Dr Papa Kwesi Nduom (CPP), 3,988 (0.51 per cent).
Other candidates were Mr Emmanuel Ansah Antwi (Independent), 2,435 votes; Joseph Osei Yeboah (Independent), 1,609 votes while Dr Wereko Brobbey obtained 918 votes.
The results in the 2012 presidential election turned in favour of the NDC in the region with candidate Mahama obtaining 511,244 votes (51.49 per cent), while his rival, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo garnered 469,909 votes, representing 47.33 of the total votes cast.
The other candidates, Henry Lartey, Dr Nduom, Dr Abu Sakara, Mr Hassan Ayariga, Joseph Osei Yeboah and Kwasi Addae Odike all got figures below one per cent.
2016 general election
Towards the 2016 general election, 121 candidates are vying for the 29 seats in the region with both the NPP and the NDC candidates contesting all the seats.
The breakdown of the participation of the other political parties in the parliamentary contest is as follows: CPP- 24; PPP- 20; PNC- 10; NDP- 5; APC- one, GCPP – one and two independent candidates.
Age
The oldest person contesting for a seat in the region is Captain Kojo Boakye-Djan (retd), 73, NDC-Jaman South, while the youngest contestant is Ms Rita Adjeiwaa, 23 – CPP, Tain Constituency.
Flashpoints
The following constituencies have been identified as the flashpoints in the region. They are Asunafo South, Asunafo North, Asutifi South, Tano South, Tain and the Atebubu/Amantin.
Conclusion
With the above analysis, there is no doubt that the Brong Ahafo Region may be one of the regions that will decide the eventual winner of the 2016 general elections.
The NDC is poised to maintain its recent dominance in the region, while the NPP is doing what it can to win back all the seats that it lost to the NDC in the previous election.
They are all targeting not less than 20 out of the 29 seats in the region.
The PPP, however, seems to be making inroads into the northern part of the region with officials of the party predicting to win about 10 seats in the region.
Should the PPP even get one seat, it will be the first time since 1996 that any political party other than NDC or NPP will win a seat in the region.
On the presidential contest, the difference between the NDC and NPP in the 2012 general election was 3.66 per cent in the region. The question is can the NPP close this gap or will the NDC stretch the lead tomorrow?