EIU predicts win for NPP in Nov but NDC says report endorses govt’s massive investment in economy
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is predicting a win for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and its flag bearer, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, in the November 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections.
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That, according to the EIU, was because there was little time left for President John Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to turn the economy around before the November elections.
“The outcome is by no means a foregone conclusion, however, with the results likely to be close. The NPP will need to work hard to attract votes from outside its heartlands in central Ghana, while maintaining internal unity,” it stated in its February 2016 Ghana Country Political Outlook Report.
Electoral allegiances
It said the NDC would continue to enjoy strong support in the east and north of the country owing to historical and tribal allegiances, saying that the Greater Accra Region, a historical swing state, would be a key battleground and so tension in the economic hub could disrupt business operations.
According to the EIU, whichever party won the 2016 elections was expected to preside over an improving economic situation and that would bolster its support in 2020, making re-election the most likely outcome.
It, however, said Mr Mahama would be constitutionally barred from standing again if victorious in 2016, so the NDC could face a damaging internal battle to succeed him, which might play into the hands of the NPP.
“If Mr Akufo-Addo is victorious in 2016, he would be eligible to stand again in 2020, but would be 76 years old by then and so could face challenges from inside his party,” it said.
Political stability
It said Ghana would continue to enjoy an enviable level of political stability in the coming five years, backed by its robust democracy, although it would not be without significant tension at some points.
It explained that public resentment at slow economic growth by historical standards, electricity shortages; high inflation and currency depreciation were likely to result in public protests, as had happened sporadically over the past year.
The report said Mr Mahama and the NDC government would bear the brunt of the blame for the situation, with the opposition NPP attempting to act as a focus for disenchanted Ghanaians to rally around, knowing that attacking the government's economic record represented its best chance of taking power in the elections set for November 2016.
“In extreme cases, public anger can snowball into a popular uprising. However, such level of instability is unlikely in Ghana, where democracy is firmly established; the entrenchment of the democratic process is the most powerful factor in preventing popular unrest expanding to the point that it threatens the political structure as a whole,” it stated.
Election tension
It said although Ghana's democracy would shield it from a breakdown in political stability, election-related tension, particularly if close results were disputed by the losing side, was likely to result in outbreaks of unrest.
“The NPP goes into the election period unhappy that its demands for a new electoral roll have been rejected by the Electoral Commission in favour of a cleaning-up of the current register— which the NPP claims is biased towards the NDC,” it said.
It said a disputed election would be decided by the courts, as happened in 2012, with all the sides accepting the verdict at the time.
It, however, said following the judicial corruption scandal in 2015, a lack of trust in the Judiciary would make it more likely that any 2016 election case verdict would not be accepted, increasing the risk of instability.
“However, if, as seems likely at present, there is a transparent investigation into the corruption allegations that punishes those guilty of wrongdoing, then trust should be improved enough for any 2016 election challenges to be handled without triggering instability,” it said.
The EIU said after a fraught 2016 election period, the threat of instability would recede during 2017-2019, as better economic performance would help ease frustrations before another spike in tension ahead of the 2020 elections.
Ghana is no target
It said Ghana was not likely to be a central target for terrorists, but its close ties with the West and the significant expatriate population in Accra might draw the attention of extremists.
“Although the low incidence of sectarian tension suggests that the country — even if not without disenchanted youngsters — is not an ideal breeding ground for radicalised aggressors, the porosity of its borders remains a cause for concern,” it stated.
But with the NPP 2008 defeat blamed on complacency, the Deputy General Secretary, Nana Obiri Boahen, in a reaction to the report told Joy FM’s Top Story the party was taking nothing for granted.
“We are not going to bank our hope on any prediction from an astrologer or soothsayer,” he said.
Although he acknowledged that the general economic frustration of Ghanaians was “a notorious fact”, Nana Obiri Boahen said the party would campaign ‘village to village’ ‘cottage to cottage”.
While the report cast dark fortunes for the NDC, its Deputy General Secretary, Koku Anyhidoho, welcomed it.
He referred to portions of the report which said Ghana was on the verge of exponential economic growth from 2017 to 2019.
According to Koku Anyhidoho, this prediction destroyed the NPP narrative that the Mahama-led government had destroyed the economy.
He said the report endorsed the NDC’s view that the President had invested massively in infrastructural development necessary for economic take-off.