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Championship Playoff: Andre Ayew's Swansea battle Brentford for Premier League spot
Just one place and seven points separated the two in the league, but the gap is much wider when we look at the match-up from a data perspective.
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Whether it's the pair's form this season, respective semi-final ties or most recent meetings between the sides, the underlying numbers tell us the same thing — the Bees carry a sharp sting, while, despite looking serene above the surface, the Swans are paddling furiously underneath.
Brentford are favourites
Brentford's progression past Bournemouth to the play-off final was a microcosm of their season, proving themselves to be one of the elite teams in the Championship without claiming the convincing victory their performances deserved.
They lost 1-0 in the first leg away to the Cherries despite creating the better chances, before recovering in the second leg at the Brentford Community Stadium with the help of indiscipline from their opponents, winning 3-1 after gifting Bournemouth the perfect start.
Brentford manager, Thomas Frank
Despite ending the regular season in third place, Thomas Frank's side were the number one team in the league based on underlying data, second only to champions Norwich in terms of scoring opportunities created, while boasting the best defence in the Championship.
Ultimately, the Bees have both overachieved and underperformed for a prolonged period, posting outstanding metrics with limited resource throughout Frank's tenure, without the reward of Premier League status.
A dip in form during spring likely cost Frank's men automatic promotion, but it is their only substantial blemish since his arrival in October 2018, and Brentford have responded by bouncing back to their brilliant best in recent weeks.
Swansea struggles unpunished
Much like their play-off final opponents, Swansea's semi-final tie epitomised their season effectively — just in a different manner.
Their 2-1 aggregate win over Barnsley was incredibly dour, which was somewhat unfairly attributed to Barnsley's style of play. Swansea advanced to the final despite creating very little in both legs.
Swansea will look up to their influential midfielder Andre Ayew for inspiration
Although their defensive metrics have been solid throughout, Swansea have overachieved at both ends of the pitch to secure a real chance of promotion here.
These long term issues are of major concern heading into a game against a Brentford team that is far superior from a data standpoint, but this is a one-off, and if any team can beat the odds in a play-off final, why not a Swansea side which has been doing it for the majority of the season.
Balanced game
We only need to look back at the two most recent meetings between the teams to see how variance can play a role in the result of a single game of football.
Brentford and Swansea played out two 1-1 draws in the 2020/21 season despite the Bees completely dominating at the Liberty Stadium, highlighting the volatility involved in one match.
Nevertheless, facing Swansea in the play-off final is a best case scenario for Brentford after they failed to secure an automatic promotion spot, at least from a data perspective.
It is a perfect opportunity to earn a prize they've deserved in recent seasons — a Premier League place.
