Economy set for 6.1% growth despite Middle East tensions — Standard Bank Research

Standard Bank’s Head of Africa Research, Jibran Qureishi, has projected that Ghana's economy will expand by between 5.9 per cent and 6.1 per cent in 2026, buoyed by structural support from gold mining expansion, critical infrastructure projects and improved foreign exchange buffers. 

The economy's stronger-than-expected 2025 performance, achieving six per cent growth against initial forecasts of 5.6 per cent to 5.8 per cent, has strengthened confidence in the medium-term outlook.

Speaking at a webinar organised by the Stanbic Bank Ghana on “Positioning for What’s Next: Navigating Ghana’s Evolving Market Landscape,” he said growth exceeded our expectations, peaking at six per cent for 2025.

“Given the base has changed now and is higher than we had expected, we still believe that growth in 2026 will be between 5.9 per cent and 6.1 per cent, with potential to pick up to between 6.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent in 2027,” Mr Qureishi stated.

He said regardless of risks such as tensions in the Middle East, Ghana’s economy would still expand due to some structural changes and investments on the ground.

Drivers

He explained that the revised outlook reflected an upgraded assessment of the country’s growth trajectory, underpinned by both public investment and private sector expansion in key economic drivers.

Significant public investment in infrastructure has strengthened the growth outlook considerably. Mr Qureishi highlighted ongoing projects, including the Tema Port expansion, which was inaugurated in the fourth quarter of last year, the Accra-Tema motorway expansion and the Kumasi Airport reconstruction.

“These initiatives are expected to generate multiplier effects across the economy.

Enhanced oversight from the newly established gold board is anticipated to reduce illicit flows in artisanal mining, a move that could stimulate fresh investment in the mining sector and improve operational efficiency across the industry,” he added.

Standard Bank’s Head of Africa Research also believes that Bank of Ghana’s domestic gold purchase programme has emerged as a critical buffer to external shocks, despite recent accounting losses stemming from high sterilisation costs associated with excess liquidity in the market.

Policymakers remain committed to the programme, viewing its benefits to

Ghana's external position as outweighing short-term financial pressures.

“The sterilisation cost is what has ultimately predominantly caused this loss for the Bank of Ghana.

However, in our discussions with policymakers and authorities in Ghana, we still expect them to remain steadfast on the domestic gold purchase programme,” Mr Qureishi explained.

Positive outlook

He said the Standard Bank Africa Research maintained a positive medium-term outlook for gold prices, supported by robust demand from emerging market central banks and expectations that the dollar index would decline eventually, a perspective crucial for Ghana, as gold exports continued to rise despite international price volatility.

Mr Qureishi also pointed out that foreign investor participation in Ghana’s local debt market had shrunk dramatically to less than five per cent, down from nearly 40 per cent before the pandemic.

“While this creates challenges for external financing, it has paradoxically insulated Ghana from external portfolio volatility, making it what Standard Bank terms ‘a low beta market’ with reduced external shocks,” he added.

He stressed that structural shift enhanced Ghana’s ability to maintain steady growth regardless of global market turbulence, providing a foundation for the projected expansion in 2026 and beyond.