Ghana’s projected current account surplus for 2026 has been reduced by about US$1 billion after Standard Bank revised its outlook, citing rising oil import costs linked to the Middle East crisis that has increased pressure on the country’s external sector.
The revision was outlined by the Head, Africa Regions Economics Research, Standard Bank, Jibran Qureishi, who said Ghana’s dependence on imported petroleum had forced the bank to lower its forecast despite continued strength in exports.
Standard Bank now expects Ghana to record a current account surplus of about US$4 billion in 2026, down from an earlier projection of about US$5 billion.
The bank, however, said the country was still expected to remain in surplus despite the deterioration in its external position.
Imports
The bank said Ghana remained exposed to higher global oil prices because it imported more crude oil than it exported.
It estimated that petroleum imports accounted for about 29 per cent of total goods imports when oil traded at around US$65 per barrel, with the share expected to rise further if prices reached between US$90 and US$95 per barrel.
“We import more oil than we export, and that leads us to lower our current account surplus forecast by about US$1 billion. Ghana still records a surplus, but higher oil prices continue to weigh on the country’s external position,” Mr Qureishi said.
The report said Ghana’s direct exposure to wider Middle East supply chain disruptions remained limited outside crude oil.
It noted that only about six per cent of fertiliser imports originated from the United Arab Emirates, while most supplies came from Russia and Italy. Cocoa exports also had limited direct exposure to the region.
Forex
Standard Bank said pressure persisted in the foreign exchange market, where it estimated an outstanding dollar backlog of about US$1 billion.
The cedi traded around GH¢11.65 to GH¢11.70 to the US dollar, reflecting continued tightness in foreign currency liquidity.
The bank expected the exchange rate to move closer to GH¢12.00 to the US dollar before stabilising as new foreign exchange liquidity measures introduced by the Bank of Ghana began to take effect.
“The new foreign exchange mechanism reduces aggressive bidding and gives more businesses access to foreign currency.
That supports lower volatility and improves liquidity across the market,” Mr Qureishi said.
Policy
The report said the Bank of Ghana’s decision to reduce the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points to 14 per cent was unlikely to be followed by another cut in the near term because rising fuel and food prices were expected to keep inflation elevated.
Standard Bank projected inflation to remain in the high single digits or low double digits before the end of the year and expected the central bank to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance while closely monitoring inflation risks.
“We expect the Bank of Ghana to pause further rate cuts because inflation remains a concern. The priority is preserving macroeconomic stability while the economy adjusts to higher external costs,” Mr Qureishi said.