Ghana knows quite a bit about energy. She knows that its current installed capacity is greater than its peak demands. She also knows that historically, installed capacity has never translated to available power. She is not in doubt about what margins its energy capacity must grow each year to meet expanding needs.
In fact, Ghana has data to show that in five to seven year cycles, it has always suffered power crisis. In other words, Ghana has always been in possession of sufficient information both to predict its power crises and to plan to avert same although she appears to have chosen not to!
So why has Ghana repeatedly failed to avert recurrent power crisis leading perhaps to the current longest spell aka ‘dumsor’? The answer lies in the failure of leadership – both political and technical.
The following facts put out by the Minister of Power at his recent press conference illustrates the above points clearly. Our current installed capacity is 2,845.5MW.
Our current peak demand is 2,300MW. Ordinarily, the current installed capacity ought to have been sufficient to meet our peak demands, but for systemic inefficiencies. With the total available peak generation capacity currently at 1,494 MW, only 53 per cent of our installed capacity is available to us! In the tragic aftermath of these facts, Ghana is currently shedding 650MW at peak times.
Horrible effects
The effects on individuals, organisations and industry have been horrible. In fact, to put it mildly, we have not taken the matter well. In addition to privately procured inverters and power plants, the good people of Ghana have assuaged their frustrations through inventiveness – composing songs and circulating humorous messages on social media in order to prevent them from crying in hot darkness.
But one other fact is particularly penetrating! Ghana has always known that it has an average annual growth in demand for power of 12 per cent .
If this increment is on the 2015 installed capacity, then it implies that every year, the government of the day ought to be able to add a minimum of 341MW of power to our stock. It is important to clarify that if one were to compute the 12 per cent annual growth rate on the 1966 generating capacity of 1,020MW, then each president after Nkrumah ought to have added a minimum of 122MW every year. But because succeeding presidents woefully failed to meet this target, the deficit has grown to the point where as at 2015, each president ought to be able to add a minimum of 341MW every year.
In this analysis, I am leaving out the Osagyefo. His record is too juicy. What else can I say? By the time Kwame Nkrumah was overthrown, available generation outstripped our peak demand by as much as 500 per cent . We were too comfortable! This is perhaps why others went to sleep!
With the 122-341MW per year range acknowledged, I shall for purposes of this piece use the upper limit of 341MW per year as the yardstick for each president from Rawlings to Mahama in order to have averted the current crisis.
An objective analysis of the actual megawatts added by each president before leaving office makes the leadership failure even more obvious. What also becomes unmistakable is the fact that the crisis of today was created yesterday and that based on the actions or inaction of today’s leaders, the crisis of tomorrow is either being created or averted!
Attempts
Between 1982 and 2000, Rawlings added on the average 39.4MW per year. This represented 11.5 per cent of the target. It was certainly woefully inadequate. By the time Kufuor left office in 2008, he had added on the average 10MW per year. This represented 2.9 per cent of the target. This was certainly most tragic and a huge missed opportunity. Between 2009 and 2012, Mills added on the average 106 MW per year. This represented 31 per cent of the 341MW target. This was also certainly below the target, but perhaps, Mills should not have died!
Mahama, Mahama, Mahama! What shall I say about my big brother? Should I praise him for what he has added in two years or should I conclude that whatever his exertions, their overall impact on our current predicament has been negligible? I will leave his evolving record for now because his clock is still ticking.
What is not in doubt is that Mahama must address both his own sins while atoning for the sins of the fathers in order to make a lasting impact. Will he be able to achieve the 5,000MW target he has set himself by the end of his term? We watch keenly!
That said, I share the view that he must fully accept the burden for improvement and focus on closing our current gaps as opposed to chasing scapegoats or being distracted by insults! Fortunately, he has indicated that he is so minded.
I must also question not just the political leadership but also the technical leadership of technocrats.
Why is 47 per cent of our generating capacity unavailable to us? Why are we still sometimes taking thermal plants for repairs abroad? While acknowledging VRA’s expertise in managing hydro plants, should we be considering hiving off responsibilities for managing thermal plants to a different body with more specialised technical abilities?
What is not in doubt is that the good people are roundly annoyed and greatly irritated by the inconveniences of the moment. It has also been interesting listening to the sheer hypocrisy and pontifications of people who could and should have done more when they had the opportunity to serve.
Today, many have conveniently become blinded to the root causes of our current predicament. It is a partisan political process after all and there is no doubt that Mahama will take the political fallout if the current energy problems remain unresolved.
If there is any talk of the amnesia of the electorate, it is rather in the fact that all our challenges are only attributable to the now rather than a balanced holistic view that fairly evaluates the abysmal past leadership on energy and an evaluation of current leaders’ efforts.
Electoral amnesia is hardly the laughable fear of some that if Mahama does indeed solve the ‘dumsor’ crisis, the Ghanaian electorate may just ‘forgive and forget’ and reward rather than punish him!
For these reasons, some secretly wish the problems will continue to defy solutions in order that some narrow partisan political purpose may be served!
Overall, as Mr Kwesi Pratt Jnr has indicated, people are roundly fed up with announcements about plans and agreements being signed. They simply want tangible solutions.
For this reason, I intend to spare no effort rehashing the Minister of Power’s plans which aim to generate 1,000MW this year and bring ‘dumsor’ to an end. If he, with government, does not meet the various timelines outlined, I am quite sure he will be hearing from me and others!
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