‘D-Day’ in Assin North
There comes a time when something that is ordinarily not much of an issue takes centre-stage with the force of a hurricane and drives everything around it because it is huge and significant in a certain context.
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Until the drama around the former Member of Parliament (MP) for Assin North, George Quayson, erupted over his nationality issues and, therefore, the legitimacy of his parliamentary election, not many people had paid attention to the constituency, including where exactly it is located, some of the towns there and just about everything about it.
After several hoops, swings and roundabouts, including Supreme Court hearings and the subsequent removal of Mr Quayson from Parliament, things have come to a dizzy climax.
By the end of today, one of the two candidates for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will probably be hoisted high on sturdy shoulders, receiving a liberal sprinkling of talcum powder in victory, whilst the other will put on a brave smile in an attempt to hide the pain of his defeat.
By-election dynamics
In the normal scheme of things, a bye-election is supposed to be a purely local affair, decided by particular dynamics.
But that does not quite translate into reality.
In the 31 by-elections held in the lifetime of the 4th Republic, which has seen the NPP winning 16, the NDC winning 13, the CPP winning one and an independent candidate winning one, these events have been, in several cases, treated as barometer of the national political inkling and, therefore, a popularity verdict particularly on the incumbent government.
What this has, in turn, meant is that both parties have marshalled all their political resources, both financial and human, and rolled their artillery into these constituencies, swarming the place like army ants in their hunt for every single vote, especially if it is not a stronghold of either party.
Overnight road construction works by governments under the glare of powerful lamps ahead of bye-elections have evoked cynical comments from many citizens.
It happened under the NDC government in 2015, ahead of the Amenfi West bye-election, and recently in Kumawu, ahead of the bye-election.
The vehement insistence by government officials that these works had been planned much earlier has been met with snorts of derision.
Eventually, seats have been retained and seats have been flipped.
Assin North
Interestingly, the Assin North parliamentary seat has been won by both the NDC and the NPP at various points in the Fourth Republic.
So, neither party can take today’s contest lightly, as it is a battleground that can go either way.
Every vote counts and must be mopped up.
Further, this by-election is probably unique for the simple reason that it is the first time that a person who was elected as MP and removed by the courts is putting his hat back in the by-election ring, following the vacancy occasioned by his removal.
With a majority of over 4,000 in the 2020 general election that saw him enter parliament, he is entitled to feel confident about his chances once again.
I would be surprised if, for extra measure, he did not seek to ride on some sympathy votes, projecting himself as a victim of persecution by the NPP government.
With a criminal prosecution hanging over his head, some feel he is displaying stubborn bravado in contesting, as it could turn out to be a hollow victory if he won and then got convicted, which would then trigger his removal from Parliament yet again, and then, possibly another bye-election.
But then, I believe Mr Quayson, with the support of his party, has done his analysis and arrived at his decision to contest.
After all, there is no legal barrier to his candidature in the bye-election, and I suppose the criminal trial will go on regardless of whether or not he takes part in the contest.
With the crucial general election only about 18 months away, the NDC is desperate for a boost to psyche up its base, and a win would give them exactly that tool because the party could leverage it as a vindication of its stance that the governing NPP has mismanaged the country and ought to be booted out.
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They would be able to proclaim loudly that a rejection of the NPP in Assin North was a clear sign of what lies ahead.
The NPP is equally desperate to shut down that argument by the NDC and be able to claim, with a win by Charles Opoku, that in spite of all the economic challenges, the people still trust the NPP to govern this country better.
The government’s projects in the constituency, from roads to schools and others, have been touted loudly in the constituency for all to hear.
Snatching the seat from the NDC is an important tool the NPP needs to drive its ‘breaking the 8’ agenda.
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And, just as with the NDC, it desperately hopes its base will be fired up by a win.
Of course, given the party’s representation in Parliament, a win, from the NPP perspective, will make the conduct of government business slightly easier, even if with just a single extra seat on its side of the house.
‘Vox populi, Vox Dei’
Today is ‘D-Day’ in Assin North. The door-to-door canvassing is over.
The boots stomping the grounds all over the constituency are silent.
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The loudspeakers and megaphones have been turned off, the rally grounds have been deserted and the wooden platforms have been dismantled.
The banners and posters remain forlorn reminders of the intense campaign that has taken place by both parties.
When the people have exercised their franchise and all is done, we will know, by nightfall tonight, which of the two main candidates has carried the day and given his party invaluable bragging rights.
Of course, my bias as to who I hope wins is evident and I need not belabour it, even if I do not have a vote in this election.
In any event, as I learned in my Latin class in my first three years at Opoku Ware School back in the 1980s, ‘vox populi, vox Dei’ (the voice of the people is the voice of God).
Rodney Nkrumah-Boateng
Head, Communications & Public Affairs Unit,
Ministry of Energy,
Accra.
E-mail: [email protected]