French police have opened an investigation into suspected insider trading after a series of bets correctly predicted the exact order of the top five finishers in last month’s Ballon d’Or award.
According to sources in French law enforcement familiar with the case, the bets originated from 12 accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket. The sources spoke anonymously because they were not authorised to discuss an ongoing investigation publicly.
The accounts reportedly predicted the top five in the correct order: Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi.
One source said the bettors’ trading patterns and the way they managed their positions on the market also raised suspicions of possible insider trading.
As first reported by French outlet Upside and subsequently verified by The Athletic, about €250,000 ($281,000) was wagered across the accounts, generating profits of nearly €200,000 ($225,000).
Sources familiar with the matter said the Ballon d’Or organiser, France Football, was alerted to the betting irregularities before the winner was officially announced.
Following the announcement, France Football launched its own investigation and contacted the SCCJ (Central Racing and Gaming Service), the French police department responsible for gambling-related matters.
“The integrity of the Ballon d’Or is an absolute priority for France Football,” a spokesperson for the award told The Athletic, reiterating that the winner is selected through an independent voting process.
“Be sure that we take these allegations of leaked results and potentially fraudulent betting very seriously. Investigations are underway to establish the facts, and determine any potential responsibility.
“We are in the process of filing a complaint with the relevant police authorities. As investigations are ongoing, no further details can be shared at this stage.”
The SCCJ and Polymarket have been contacted for comment.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have come under scrutiny over concerns about limited regulatory oversight and the potential for insider trading.
Several US states have also taken legal action over their involvement in sports betting, with some of the cases expected to reach the country's Supreme Court.
