The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has raised an alarm on significant climate impacts, confirming the development of a very strong El Niño event, which would result in a hotter and drier dry season, heightened heat stress and potential risks to agriculture, water resources and hydropower generation through 2027.
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, including West Africa.
The agency says the phenomenon is expected to intensify between January and March next year, with an 83 per cent probability of reaching strong to very strong intensity, raising concerns about prolonged dry spells, water shortages, bushfires and increased heat stress.
In a press release, GMet said the developing El Niño, characterised by the abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, was already influencing global rainfall and temperature patterns, including those of West Africa.
It said observations from the agency and international climate monitoring institutions, including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), showed that the event was intensifying.
Precautionary measures
Ahead of the harmattan season, GMet said conditions were expected to be drier and dustier than usual in many parts of the country, potentially increasing the risk of bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock.
It also warned of an increased seasonal risk of meningitis in the northern regions as a result of the anticipated hot, dry and dusty conditions.
The agency identified February to April 2027 as the period likely to experience the highest heat stress, particularly in northern Ghana.
It said the onset and performance of the 2027 rainy season remained uncertain, adding that it would continue to monitor weather conditions and provide updated seasonal forecasts.
Consequently, the GMet has called for immediate action to help mitigate the impact.
It has advised residents, particularly those in northern Ghana, to limit exposure to dust and seek immediate medical attention if they experience symptoms such as fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.
The agency further urged the public to drink enough water during hot periods, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours and check on older people, young children and persons who were unwell.
It also called for water conservation and urged the public to rely on official weather information for updates.
On agriculture, it stressed the need for farmers to consult its advisories and those of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting, while considering early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate.
It also advised farmers to avoid bush burning and adopt climate-smart agricultural practices to minimise the potential impact of the changing weather conditions on food production.
Localised flooding
Despite the forecast of generally below-normal seasonal rainfall, GMet has cautioned that sudden heavy downpours and localised flooding remained possible, particularly in parts of southern Ghana.
Communities along the Volta River and residents of low-lying urban areas have, therefore, been advised to continue following directives from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).
Previous experience
The GMet said Ghana’s experience with previous El Niño episodes, particularly those of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 2023/24, demonstrated the country’s vulnerability to rainfall variability and its consequences for agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and public health.
