China's trade surplus surged past $1 trillion in the first 10 months as a global race to build AI infrastructure buoyed sales of high-tech products and helped offset weak domestic demand, a dynamic likely to sharpen tensions with major trading partners.
The data comes ahead of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet for the third time this year, putting broader economic ties and tariff policy squarely in focus.
The figures highlight Beijing's growing reliance on overseas demand to support an economy hobbled by subdued consumption and a protracted property slump. But while the global AI investment boom is expected to keep demand for Chinese technology products strong into 2027, analysts warn that deeper dependence on external markets could leave China more vulnerable to protectionist measures abroad while masking persistent weakness at home.
Exports rose sharply by 35.2% in October from the same month last year in US dollar terms, customs data showed on Tuesday, only a touch slower than the 36.3% surge in September and comfortably ahead of economists' forecast for an increase of 33.5%.
That helped lift China's trade surplus to $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months, topping $1 trillion for a second consecutive year and reaching the milestone a month earlier than in 2025.
The swelling surplus could fuel further tensions with the European Union, where leaders have called for more trade curbs with China after reaching an agreement with Beijing to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc over the next few years. Because the measures have yet to take effect, factories are expected to bring forward shipments, bolstering exports in the near term.
"The risk of additional tariffs and other trade barriers will remain elevated in 2027, particularly as Chinese manufacturers continue expanding their presence in overseas markets," said Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China.
China's trade surplus with the US narrowed slightly to $32.71 billion in October from $34.01 billion the previous month, though the broader imbalance remains a source of friction between the world's two largest economies.
Beijing and Washington on Monday formally extended by two months a trade truce that had been due to expire on Tuesday. China said last week that any expansion of purchases of US farm goods would hinge on the implementation of agreed reciprocal tariff reductions.
Imports rose 41.6% in October from a year earlier, beating the 32% increase forecast in the Reuters poll and accelerating from the 31% growth in September. Customs data also showed rare-earth exports edged higher from the previous month, while crude oil imports climbed to their highest level since March as buyers adjusted to supply disruptions in the Middle East.
"The contraction in rare-earth export volumes eased last month, suggesting that China may have begun to relax enforcement of some export controls," said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics. "This may reflect continued pressure from the US on Beijing to improve rare-earth supplies."
The data elicited little market response, with China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300), opens new tab and the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC), opens new tab both edging up 0.1% by the lunch break.
HEADWINDS
One big worry for Beijing is that consumers remain reluctant to spend, constrained by a property market downturn that has battered household wealth and dented confidence in the economic outlook.
Sluggish demand at home has pushed Chinese automakers to seek sales in overseas markets. China's car exports maintained a solid pace of growth in October, while domestic vehicle sales recorded a 12th straight month of declines, separate data released by an industry association showed.
Greater reliance on exports, however, leaves China's economy increasingly exposed to any slowdown in global demand, with some analysts cautioning that shipment growth could cool once the AI investment cycle matures.
For now, most industry observers expect AI-related demand to remain robust. China's exports of semiconductors surged 111.1% year-on-year in the first 10 months in US dollar value terms, while overall shipments of high-tech products jumped 47.9%.
"We may see trade growth moderate next year, given the base effect," said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.
"But AI-related trade is expected to remain strong in the months ahead despite recent equity market volatility."
