Gerrymandering to create favourable constituencies!
The announced policy of creating new regions, districts, and as a natural consequence, new constituencies in this country has a weird history since 1992. Former Supreme Court judge, Justice Alan Brobbey, is actually chairing the committee set up for the purpose, and public sittings are ongoing.
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In the meantime, in line with the law and the constitution, the Local Government minister has laid a new constitutional instrument in Parliament to create new municipalities and districts. The successful passage of this instrument will lead automatically and legally to the creation of new constituencies by the Electoral Commission (EC).
The President justifies this slew of changes in our political geography as fulfilling electoral promises.
Gerrymandering
The easy political device of redrawing regional, district and constituency boundaries to establish and confirm advantage for incumbent governments actually has had a checkered history in recent times in this country.
The erstwhile National Democratic Congress (NDC) did not win the majority of the new 45 parliamentary seats created in 2012, following the creation of new districts.
Voters everywhere in the world, where public opinion is openly canvassed, do not like to be taken as dupes for a political project which is not linked to tangible goodies.
Prejudice is not a political goodie. What is happening is gerrymandering, plain and simple, clothed in the garb of electoral promises requiring fulfilment.
The meaning of the word gerrymander and its age should tell us that politicians in the modern democratic era have seen this as a momentary solution to the age-old question of performance.
For us in Ghana, the results of the last election have also downgraded performance, defined as meeting the development expectations of the electorate, to a problematic gauge. Reducing the political equation to that of a conflict over values and culture even further threatens an incumbent government which has failed to grab the opportunity to indicate a firm direction on the explosive issue of same-sex sexual relations, for example. This is a political flashpoint in all societies: north, south, west and east.
Manipulative
To gerrymander simply means to divide into political units to give one group an unfair advantage. The word itself is an amalgam of the name of 19 century Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry and the animal salamander, a lizard look-alike, which suggested the shape of the redrawn electoral district in the state in 1812 in the United States.
This involves concentrating one’s political support in advantageous areas and at the same time, dispersing the support of opponents discretely to dilute the latter’s strength. In simple straightforward terms, this is what the redrawing of regional borders, creation of new regions, municipalities and districts by the government of President Akufo-Addo is supposed to achieve.
The aim is electoral and raw power politics, not administrative. It is for the sole purpose of confirming in future electoral contests, the political dominance of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) countrywide. I will explain presently.
Intentions
Faithful readers of mine will recall that I reacted to an aspect of this issue with respect to possible secession and disintegration of the state of Ghana on March 24, 2017 to be exact. That epistle was titled, ‘What is happening in the Volta Region?’ and I got the most public reaction so far from that.
Now that some maps are floating around as to the nature and extent of the new regions, municipalities and districts, I am now in a firmer position to grasp the intentions of the government.
A number of issues relative to the creation of new regions and other administrative demarcations leap to the eye from a cursory glance at the available maps. These new divisions are on the surface supposed to deliver better development than previously when they were part of old divisions. Are land mass and population of these new areas factored into their creation, because those are the factors the
Electoral Commission, at the tail end, will consider in creating new constituencies? The answer is clearly no.
Will infrastructure development be dependent or be subservient to the creation of these new divisions? The solution to this is the collapsing and cancellation of all borders and redrawing from scratch.
Are all Ghanaians or only the affected portions, to take part in the referenda to decide these divisions? These are not idle speculative questions, but fundamental constitutive and constitutional issues.
Dividing votes?
We see clearly from the available maps that the new divisions are not about development, but votes. For example, the Eastern, Ashanti and Greater Accra regions are not affected by the new regional divisions but are rather getting the majority of new districts and municipalities.
On the other hand, the proposed new regions have fewer districts and municipal assemblies. No explanation is proffered for this strategic oversight. Districts and municipalities are the nodes of development in our governance structure.
Out of the four identified regions which receive the lowest development assistance from the central government, only Volta will be divided. But Eastern, Greater Accra and Ashanti would remain the same.
New regions, obviously in the reasoning behind these divisions, will not equate to more or equal development. It appears clearly, that this is about vote sharing and scattering in the perceived strongholds of the opposition NDC simpliciter!
Dynamics
Historically and politically, at least since the start of the Fourth Republic in 1992, the ruling NPP has won consistently only two regions whether in government or opposition, Eastern and Ashanti, and the NDC has won four; Upper West , Upper East, Volta and Northern respectively. Actually, the NPP won only Ashanti Region in 1992, hence The Stolen Verdict.
Though the whole country is one constituency for presidential elections, the idea of new divisions is driven merely by perceptions.
The bandwagon effect will work if only there is a second round or more rounds in presidential elections, Except that we have not had second-round elections since the election of Professor Mills in 2008. It is a huge gamble without any credible evidence of future success.
It will, however, create new resentments, annoy those voters who are not dupes, and waste huge sums on a project that will not in any tangible way increase our development.