Ghana has received good news from Washington.
For once, it is not couched in caveats and cautions alone.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given a positive assessment of the country’s economic achievements, reaching a staff-level agreement after its first review under the new Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), for the 36-month non-financing programme for Ghana.
The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Management and the Executive Board, but the signal is clear: Ghana is on track. In the IMF’s words: “Performance under the PCI has been broadly satisfactory.
Most quantitative targets under this review are met.” That sentence matters.
For a country that just a few years ago was in the depths of debt distress, with inflation above 50 per cent, the cedi in free fall, and painful restructuring, to be described as broadly satisfactory is no small achievement.
It is the result of difficult choices — fiscal discipline, debt restructuring and structural reforms — that many Ghanaians have borne with patience.
The mission’s verdict is that “macroeconomic stability is becoming entrenched.” Real GDP grew by 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, driven by investment, and is projected at 5.7 per cent for the year.
The fiscal position is strong, with the primary surplus on track to meet the end-year programme target, and public debt remains low following the rapid declines in recent years.
These are not abstract numbers.
Growth at 6.2 per cent means factories producing, construction expanding and services growing.
A primary surplus means the government is finally living within its means before debt payments.
Low public debt means we are no longer mortgaging the future of our children to pay for today’s consumption.
Some steps are being taken.
Work is advancing on reforming the Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management framework, rolling out the Integrated Tax Administration System, operationalising the Fiscal Council, and preparing the Fiscal Risk Statement.
This is the unglamorous work of building a modern state.
It does not make headlines like a new interchange or a new loan.
But it is precisely this work that prevents the next crisis.
A Fiscal Council that tells the truth, a tax system that is integrated and fair, and a cocoa sector governed by law rather than patronage — these are the foundations of lasting stability.
Building on strong 2026 collections, the IMF says non-oil revenue is projected to further increase in 2027, supported by the tax measures announced in July 2026, the review of customs and excise legislation, and gains from revenue administration reforms, including the Integrated Tax Administration System and electronic fiscal devices.
That is welcome.
Ghana has long depended too heavily on oil, gold, and cocoa for revenue.
A broader tax base, if built fairly, is the only sustainable way to fund schools, hospitals, roads and security without perpetual borrowing.
Yet, as the IMF itself cautions, we must not mistake stability for safety.
Despite this progress, the vulnerabilities persist.
That vulnerability is now being tested.
The war has disrupted shipping, pushed up oil prices and tightened global finance.
For Ghana, a net oil importer that also depends on gold and cocoa exports, the shock is real. Our buffers help, but they do not make us immune.
The mission also flagged a worrying development: the decline in foreign exchange reserves in recent months.
It’s message is direct: “Steadfast implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, will be essential to rebuild reserves in line with programme objectives.”
In plain language: we must rebuild our dollar cushion, and we must let the cedi find its level rather than defending an artificial rate that burns reserves.
This is politically difficult.
A depreciating cedi hurts importers and consumers.
But burning reserves to defend the cedi is worse.
It leaves the country with no buffer when the next shock hits.
The government must, therefore, be transparent about the GoldBod reforms.
How will the new intermediation work?
How will it be audited? How will we ensure that gold revenues actually translate into reserves, not into new leakages?
Ghanaians have a right to know, because it is their gold and their future at stake.
Similarly, the Fiscal Risk Statement and the Fiscal Council must not remain paper institutions.
They must be operational, independent and vocal — even when their warnings are uncomfortable.
This is where the IMF’s positive assessment must be translated into a domestic agenda.
Stability is becoming entrenched.
Good. But stability that does not create jobs is incomplete.
Stability must now become shared prosperity.
The IMF has given Ghana a pass mark.
ut a pass mark is not a distinction.
The real exam is not in Washington.
It is in our markets, our classrooms, our hospitals and our homes.
