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Cedi regains stability after cocoa loan injection

BY: GCB Capital

The cedi regained fair stability on the retail market in the week that ended on October 28.

It followed a liquidity boost from the disbursement of the first tranche of the 2022/23 cocoa loan worth US$790 million.

GCB Capital said in its weekly insight that the stability also came after President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and the management of the Bank of Ghana engaged foreign exchange (FX) market operators.

The engagement led to a renewed commitment by the central bank to strictly enforce market conduct regulation.

Following these meetings, the local unit strengthened slightly, appreciating from a peak of GH¢15.7 to a US dollar to close the week at GH¢14.95 to a US dollar.

This represented a 5.02 appreciation of the cedi.


Interbank rate

The interbank rate has since stabilised at GH¢13.01 to one US dollar, indicating that the cedi has lost 53.83 per cent of its value to the ‘greenback’ since between January and October 28 this year.

The improvement in the value of the cedi could be bolstered further in the coming weeks as the BoG pledged liquidity support for the currency amidst the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a balance of payments support.

Expectations

USD: Ahead of the American Fed's policy meeting later this week, the domestic data points to heightened underlying inflationary pressure and bets on the Fed's aggressive stance have cooled off. We expect the USD to advance in the week ahead on these expectations.

GBP: The Great Britain pound (GBP) rose against the USD and other major currencies last week despite the delayed presentation of the revised economic plan. The market welcomed Rishi Sunak as the new Prime Minister of Britain, whose policy proposals could depart from Liz Truss's budget proposals.

EURO: The Eurozone's flash inflation and GDP data are expected to set the tone for the bloc currency, the euro, ahead of a busy week dominated by major central bank policy decisions.