Electricity beyond the grid: Accelerating access to sustainable power for all. Challenges and opportunities (Part 1)
Nearly one in five (18%) people in the world live without access to electricity, many of them living in locations that are beyond the reach of the current grid system. Ninety-five percent of these 1.2 billion people are in sub-Saharan Africa and developing countries in Asia. In both Asia and Africa, electrification rates are lowest in rural areas although, in sub-Saharan Africa in particular, urban areas also contain a considerable number of those without electricity.
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Rates of electrification in sub-Saharan Africa have not kept pace with population growth. The region as a whole has now overtaken Asia as having the largest number of people lacking access to electricity. The countries with the largest populations currently without electricity are India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo and Bangladesh. In the developing countries of Asia, there are an estimated
526 million people without electricity1. But demographic pressures and different rates of electrification are ensuring the problem is becoming more concentrated in Africa and will be even more so in future decades. Population growth has led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise upward its estimate for those without electricity in sub-Saharan Africa from 585 million back in 2009 to the latest estimate of 634 million. And it isn’t until the mid-2020s that the IEA expects this trend of increasing numbers without energy access in sub-Saharan Africa to start to reverse.
For urban populations and others living within a reasonable distance of the grid, extension of the central power grid remains the most cost-effective solution. The cost of supplying grid-based electricity is less than the cost of alternative off-grid options in most situations where transmission and distribution lines are nearby. But beyond a certain distance, the cost of grid extensions becomes prohibitive and standalone systems and mini-grids offer cost advantages.
With an estimated 80 per cent of those without access to electricity living in rural areas, many of them with no nearby grid, it is clear that grid extensions can’t be seen as the sole, or even the primary, answer to provision of electricity for all. This is particularly the case in Africa, where grid extension is limited due to substantial distances across the continent and the cost and losses related to this. The distances in Africa can be put into perspective by comparing the continent’s total area of 30.3 million sq. km. with that of China, the US, India, Western Europe and Argentina combined (total 29.8 million sq. km.).
Indeed, the IEA concludes that “for the large rural population that is distant from power grids, mini-grid or off-grid systems provide the most viable means of access to electricity.”3 It goes on to anticipate, in its ‘new policies’ energy outlook, that 315 million people in rural areas will gain access to electricity by 2040, with most of this new electricity access coming from the development of mini-grids (80 million people) and off-grid systems (140 million).
Of course, detailed local energy-sector mapping is required to identify the most cost-effective route in particular locations, but the importance of off-grid solutions is borne out by a study in Senegal that found that only 20% to at most 50% of the unconnected rural population could be most efficiently reached through grid extension investments.5 Off-grid electrification is the most realistic option for the remainder.
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Business School – Upcoming session:
Topic(s): Governance, Compliance and Enterprise Risk Management
Venue: The African Regent Hotel
Date: 21 & 22 June 2016
Enquiry and registration: Please contact Salome Aku Duse on 0302 761500 (ext 301) or via email to [email protected]